Guess if you can get a date or not

If you want to guess if you can get a date with that cute women in your floor who just joined, have a baseline prediction of where is she from. This prediction can help you find if in the past girls like her have dated guys like you. And then if you come to know that she likes guys who are really funny, you can adjust your estimate to how humorous you are, and then come up with a better guess…you see, you can guess better if you just have a good baseline prediction. (this is called outside view)

By the way, no matter what, don’t start with a baseline prediction of how she is talking to others in the floor and how many times you have been shot down by other women on that floor for a date (this is called the shitty inside view).

Your see, inside view isn’t really that helpful. To guess better, use the outside view. Check your baseline prediction (more on Beware of the inside view).